US and Australia project vastly different odds of El Niño developing. Who is right?

The US and Australia’s chief forecasting agencies are projecting vastly different odds on the development of an El Niño climate pattern this year.

In their latest climate update, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has remained firm on their projection that there is a 50 per cent chance of the major climate driver, linked to warmer, drier weather, developing this winter or spring.

Meanwhile, US forecast agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has tipped El Niño an almost foregone conclusion now at a 90 per cent chance of developing this year.

The significantly…