NFL coaches make tough fourth-down and 2-point conversion decisions on every game day. Quantitative analysis can inform those decisions, both for those making calls on the sideline and fans evaluating their coach’s decision-making.
So what do analytics tell us about these choices? Well, it’s complicated. Is there a cheat sheet that could help show the correct decisions? No and yes.
There is not a simple answer because the permutations of game-management decisions in football are endless….